Atlas of AI Buildout

Chokepoint · Power & Grid

The four-year wait nobody priced in: transformers

Transformer lead times and the power grid bottleneck

3–4 yrslead time on a large power transformer, from about one · grade B, Derived

Every megawatt of data-centre load needs transformers, switchgear and high-voltage cable before it is worth anything. That equipment used to arrive in about a year. It now takes three to four, and the order book is full before the factory opens.

The supply is narrow and industrial: Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy, Schneider Electric, Eaton, ABB and Korea's Hyosung and HD Hyundai Electric in large power transformers; Prysmian, Nexans and NKT in HVDC cable, which is why Italy — not Germany or the United States — leads the cables sub-layer on the ownership basis.

This is the least glamorous chokepoint in the atlas and possibly the most binding. A GPU order can be expedited. A 400 kV transformer cannot, and every grid connection, every renewable interconnector and every new substation is competing for the same slots. Switch the tier rail to Power & Grid and the sub-layer concentration bars make the shape of it obvious.

Source — Company filings, Annual reports, 20-F and 10-K filings (2026)
Revenue taken from audited annual results where the company reports a single consolidated figure. FY2025 anchors used here: TSMC $122.4bn; Nvidia $130.5bn (FY2025); Broadcom $63.9bn; Samsung Electronics KRW 333.6tn; SK hynix KRW 97.15tn; ASML EUR 32.7bn; Hon Hai NT$8.103tn; GE Vernova $38.1bn; Vertiv $10.23bn. Segment boundaries still differ between issuers, so sub-layer splits remain derived.

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The thinking behind the atlas is written up in Cheap thought has a physical address on Substack.

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