Sub-layers
Each sub-layer carries a substitutability weight between 0 and 1: how hard it would be to replace the countries that supply it. A high weight sitting on a concentrated share is what makes a chokepoint.
| Sub-layer | Substitutability | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Optics & transceiversPluggable optics linking accelerators across a campus. InnoLight led 2025 shipments at 23.4%; Chinese vendors hold seven of the top ten positions. | 0.70 | B |
| Switch siliconMerchant switching ASICs. A near-monopoly position for one US vendor at the high end. | 0.90 | C |
| Switch systemsAssembled switching platforms and the fabric software above them. | 0.60 | C |
| Fibre plantOptical fibre and campus cable plant. Ample capacity, low switching cost. | 0.50 | C |
| Submarine cableIntercontinental capacity. Four suppliers build effectively all of it, and ship availability gates delivery more than factory capacity. | 0.85 | C |
Physical: where the assets sit
Ranked by share of network hardware manufacturing (%) · 9 countries with a non-zero value
| # | Country | Share of network hardware manufacturing (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 45 % C |
| 2 | United States | 18 % C |
| 3 | Taiwan | 12 % C |
| 4 | Japan | 8 % C |
| 5 | Mexico | 6 % C |
| 6 | Malaysia | 5 % C |
| 7 | India | 3 % C |
| 8 | Germany | 2 % C |
| 9 | France | 1.5 % C |
Top 9 of 9. The full ranking is in the interactive atlas.
Ownership: who books the revenue
Ranked by domiciled supplier revenue ($bn) · 4 countries with a non-zero value
| # | Country | Domiciled supplier revenue ($bn) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 292 $bn A |
| 2 | China | 55 $bn C |
| 3 | Japan | 16 $bn C |
| 4 | France | 2 $bn C |
Top 4 of 4. The full ranking is in the interactive atlas.
Control: who could stop you
Ranked by chokepoint score, aggregate (leader = 100) · 5 countries with a non-zero value
| # | Country | Chokepoint score, aggregate (leader = 100) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 100 C |
| 2 | China | 51.4 C |
| 3 | Japan | 17.1 C |
| 4 | France | 12 C |
| 5 | Taiwan | 5 C |
Top 5 of 5. The full ranking is in the interactive atlas.
Largest suppliers
24 suppliers sit in this tier; the 20 largest by revenue are below. Revenue is the group or segment figure closest to this tier's perimeter, which is why the ownership basis is graded no better than B even where every line is filed.
| Company | Domicile | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia — InfiniBand, Spectrum EthernetNetworking is bundled with the accelerator platform. | US | $130bn |
| Broadcom — Switch silicon, opticsTomahawk-class switching silicon underpins most large AI fabrics. | US | $64bn |
| Cisco — Switching, routingOnly a fraction sits in the AI fabric perimeter. | US | $54bn |
| Huawei — Switching, siliconDomestic-facing at the high end following export controls. | CN | $30bn |
| Corning — Optical fibre | US | $14bn |
| Sumitomo Electric — Fibre, optical devices | JP | $9bn |
| Arista Networks — Data-centre switchingLargest merchant AI-fabric switch vendor. | US | $8bn |
| H3C — Switching | CN | $8bn |
| Marvell — DSPs, optical silicon | US | $6bn |
| Coherent — Transceivers, lasers~16% of transceiver shipments; leading Western supplier. | US | $6bn |
| InnoLight — 800G transceivers23.4% of global transceiver shipments in 2025 and the leader in 800G. | CN | $5bn |
| Fujikura — Fibre, connectors | JP | $5bn |
| Ciena — Optical transport | US | $4bn |
| YOFC — Optical fibre and cable | CN | $4bn |
| Eoptolink — Transceivers | CN | $3bn |
| Lumentum — Lasers, transceivers | US | $2bn |
| SubCom — Submarine cable systemsOne of four suppliers that build effectively all intercontinental capacity. | US | $2bn |
| HG Genuine — Transceivers | CN | $2bn |
| Accelink — Optical components | CN | $2bn |
| Alcatel Submarine Networks — Submarine cable systemsFrench state took a controlling stake, explicitly on sovereignty grounds. | FR | $2bn |