Sub-layers
Each sub-layer carries a substitutability weight between 0 and 1: how hard it would be to replace the countries that supply it. A high weight sitting on a concentrated share is what makes a chokepoint.
| Sub-layer | Substitutability | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Design & IPAccelerator and CPU architecture plus the instruction-set IP beneath it. Nvidia alone held roughly 86% of accelerator revenue in late 2025. | 0.85 | B |
| FoundryLeading-edge wafer fabrication. The single most concentrated position anywhere in the AI stack: TSMC alone took 72.5% of foundry revenue in Q2 2026. | 0.98 | A |
| Advanced packagingCoWoS-class 2.5D and 3D packaging. Capacity here, not wafers, has repeatedly been the binding constraint on accelerator supply. | 0.92 | C |
| Semicap equipmentWafer fab equipment. ASML holds 100% of EUV lithography — the cleanest single chokepoint in the entire buildout. | 0.96 | B |
| Wafers & materialsSilicon wafers, photoresists and specialty chemicals. Japanese suppliers dominate several single-source materials. | 0.75 | C |
| Test & assemblyBack-end test, assembly and burn-in. The most substitutable step in the silicon chain. | 0.45 | C |
Physical: where the assets sit
Ranked by share of global wafer fab capacity (%) · 14 countries with a non-zero value
Ranked by installed wafer fab capacity. Raw capacity flatters China: leading-edge capacity is far more concentrated in Taiwan than these totals suggest.
| # | Country | Share of global wafer fab capacity (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 33 % B |
| 2 | Taiwan | 19 % B |
| 3 | South Korea | 17.6 % B |
| 4 | Japan | 12 % B |
| 5 | United States | 9 % B |
| 6 | Germany | 2.6 % B |
| 7 | Singapore | 2.2 % B |
| 8 | Malaysia | 1.2 % B |
| 9 | Ireland | 1 % B |
| 10 | Israel | 1 % B |
| 11 | France | 0.9 % B |
| 12 | Italy | 0.5 % B |
| 13 | India | 0.3 % C |
| 14 | Spain | 0.2 % C |
Top 14 of 14. The full ranking is in the interactive atlas.
Ownership: who books the revenue
Ranked by domiciled supplier revenue ($bn) · 9 countries with a non-zero value
Ranked by corporate domicile of silicon suppliers. The United States dominates on design revenue for chips it does not manufacture.
| # | Country | Domiciled supplier revenue ($bn) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 398 $bn B |
| 2 | Taiwan | 172 $bn A |
| 3 | Japan | 51 $bn B |
| 4 | Netherlands | 35 $bn A |
| 5 | Germany | 21 $bn B |
| 6 | China | 15 $bn C |
| 7 | South Korea | 14 $bn C |
| 8 | United Kingdom | 4 $bn B |
| 9 | Israel | 2 $bn C |
Top 9 of 9. The full ranking is in the interactive atlas.
Control: who could stop you
Ranked by chokepoint score, aggregate (leader = 100) · 10 countries with a non-zero value
Chokepoint leverage. The Netherlands ranks far above its size on ASML alone — 100% of EUV lithography, the cleanest single chokepoint in the stack.
| # | Country | Chokepoint score, aggregate (leader = 100) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taiwan | 100 C |
| 2 | United States | 77.7 C |
| 3 | Japan | 41 C |
| 4 | China | 19.1 C |
| 5 | South Korea | 17.6 C |
| 6 | Netherlands | 12.9 C |
| 7 | Malaysia | 5 C |
| 8 | Germany | 4.6 C |
| 9 | Singapore | 2.8 C |
| 10 | United Kingdom | 1 C |
Top 10 of 10. The full ranking is in the interactive atlas.
Largest suppliers
36 suppliers sit in this tier; the 20 largest by revenue are below. Revenue is the group or segment figure closest to this tier's perimeter, which is why the ownership basis is graded no better than B even where every line is filed.
| Company | Domicile | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia — Accelerators, interconnect~86% of accelerator revenue in late 2025, easing as custom silicon scales. | US | $130bn |
| TSMC — Leading-edge foundry, CoWoS72.5% of foundry revenue in Q2 2026 and the dominant advanced-packaging supplier. | TW | $122bn |
| Broadcom — Custom AI ASICsAI ASIC backlog reported at $73bn, giving visibility into 2027. | US | $64bn |
| Intel — CPUs, foundryOnly US-domiciled leading-edge logic fab operator. | US | $53bn |
| Qualcomm — SoCs, edge inference | US | $39bn |
| ASML — Lithography100% of EUV and 21.2% of all wafer fab equipment. The single cleanest chokepoint in the stack. | NL | $35bn |
| Applied Materials — Deposition, etch, metrology | US | $27bn |
| ASE Technology — Packaging and testLargest independent OSAT. | TW | $20bn |
| Lam Research — Etch, deposition | US | $18bn |
| MediaTek — SoCs, ASIC services | TW | $17bn |
| AMD — Accelerators, CPUsCredible second source; multi-gigawatt agreements signed in 2025. | US | $16bn |
| Tokyo Electron — Coaters, etch, deposition | JP | $16bn |
| Infineon — Power semiconductorsPower delivery into the rack rather than compute. | DE | $16bn |
| Samsung Foundry — Foundry6.5% of foundry revenue in Q1 2026. | KR | $14bn |
| Shin-Etsu Chemical — Silicon wafers, resistsLargest wafer supplier; several single-source materials. | JP | $14bn |
| Google — TPUCaptive silicon; revenue is an imputed internal value. | US | $12bn |
| KLA — Process control | US | $12bn |
| Amazon — Trainium, InferentiaCaptive silicon. | US | $8bn |
| SMIC — Foundry5.1% of foundry revenue; constrained at the leading edge by export controls. | CN | $8bn |
| Advantest — Test equipmentHBM and accelerator test demand has been a direct beneficiary. | JP | $8bn |